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The feverish pace at the outset soon gave way to a measured march to the May 19 adjournment deadline. Or as Republican Sen. Geoff Michel put it Friday, “a limp to the finish.”
The Democratic-led Legislature and Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty could still button up the 2008 session’s outstanding issues with time to spare. But here are seven questions that will be front and center over the next seven days:
What’s on the line?
Job one is to patch an anticipated $935 million budget deficit in a way that blunts a more severe money problem expected to hit next year. In doing so, lawmakers are intent on avoiding cuts to schools, nursing homes and local governments. The Legislature and Pawlenty are sorting out the amount to subtract from public college budgets, state court accounts, government-run health programs for the poor and rainy day reserves. They’re also trying to change the way health care — for publicly and privately insured patients — is paid for and delivered, with the goal of emphasizing preventive care and tamping down costs overall. For homeowners, there’s still a chance for state property tax aid. And for the lowest-paid workers, there’s a pending effort to boost the minimum wage.
What’s holding up a deal?
Legislative leaders say they and the governor have signed off on at least $200 million in spending cuts and are searching for $150 million more — out of an overall general-fund budget in excess of $17 billion a year. There is general agreement on a corporate tax code change that would generate money. Reserves would cover much of the rest. But they’re stuck on some key points: How to structure a property tax limit for local governments; whether to dip into a health care account for part of the fix; whether to alter Pawlenty-driven programs for teacher performance pay and rural business tax breaks; and whether to revive a previously vetoed $70 million in borrowing for a Twin Cities light rail line, money needed to unlock $450 million in federal transit aid.
What if there’s not one?
The Legislature could send a budget package to the governor anyway, but it would probably be vetoed. Pawlenty can let the clock tick down and use his executive powers to right the budget on his own. The “unallotment” process requires him to empty the reserves and allows him to delay, reduce or cancel unspent payments. They don’t have to be across-the-board cuts nor are there limits on how much can be taken from any particular program. But that route doesn’t help address the deficit expected for the next budget cycle because there technically aren’t appropriations for those two years yet. Pawlenty could also order lawmakers into a special session. Because legislators decide when it ends, that option could backfire on him. Democratic legislators want a negotiated deal because they fear Pawlenty will target programs dearest to them and because many House DFLers campaigned on anti-gridlock platforms.
What else is out there?
Other major proposals have been overshadowed but are still lingering in the background. The biggest is a plan giving state authorization to $370 million in local subsidies for a $2.1 billion Mall of America expansion. The proposal has the backing of many Capitol heavy hitters, but Pawlenty wants changes before he’ll support it. Despite a setback late Thursday night, there’s an outside chance that the Legislature could give police the power to ticket motorists for not wearing their seat belts without requiring the cops to have spotted another moving violation first. Although Pawlenty has threatened vetoes, the Legislature is primed to send him bills dealing with stem-cell research and medicinal marijuana.
Will the veto spree continue?
Pawlenty’s veto count is rising fast. Counting individual items he plucked from bills he’s signed, Pawlenty now has 154 vetoes during five sessions in power. This year alone, he has used the veto 66 times, although 55 of those were line-item cancellations on one bill. Republicans, like Sen. Michel, say they’re glad they have a goaltender in Pawlenty “to make a lot more stops in these next couple days.” Democratic lawmakers are frustrated by what they see as Pawlenty’s moving targets, surprised by veto threats after they tone down bills he has publicly slammed. “I’m starting to feel like it’s Whack-a-Mole legislation time, when I’ve got to figure out what the next thing is going to pop up,” said Rep. Terry Morrow, DFL-St. Peter.
What role will voters have?
One proposed constitutional amendment is already on the ballot and more could be added this week. Voters will already decide if they want to bump the state sales tax up by 3/8ths of 1 percent to guarantee money for wildlife habitat, water sources and the state’s arts and cultural heritage. The other amendments with the best shot would empower the Legislature to call themselves into special sessions and set up a citizens council to determine lawmaker pay. Constitutional questions appear on the ballot if the House and Senate approve identical language. The governor doesn’t act on them.
Who will go?
The end of session marks the unofficial start to the campaign season. All 134 House seats on the line in November, but not all 134 current House members want to keep their jobs. Five Republicans and three Democrats have announced they’ll move on. Some legislators wait until the final night to declare their intention. It’s seen as easier to pick up an open seat than to knock off an incumbent, especially in swing districts. Democrats enter campaign ’08 with a 36-seat majority.
