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The poll of likely Minnesota voters conducted by Quinnipiac University has Obama up 46 to 44. It’s within the survey’s margin of sampling error, meaning the race is considered about even. Last month, the same pollsters put Obama 17-percentage points ahead of McCain.
Clay Richards, the assistant director of the Connecticut university’s polling institute, said the Obama slide probably isn’t as dramatic as the raw numbers reflect. Still, Richards said McCain is clearly stronger in the state than he was in June.
“We’ve maintained all along that Minnesota is a battleground and this just shows it,” Richards said. “There’s a lot of volatility.”
It was the most dramatic swing in the four state polls Quinnipiac put out under its partnership with the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post.com. Colorado, Michigan and Wisconsin were the others — all of those polls were close except Wisconsin, which shows a double-digit Obama lead.
About one in four Minnesotans surveyed said their votes aren’t locked in. And while Democrats and Republicans largely stuck with their party’s candidate, the preferences of people who called themselves independents floated some. McCain now leads slightly among that group, which Obama had a firm grip on a month ago.
The poll was conducted between July 14 and this Tuesday, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
McCain last visited Minnesota on July 10; Obama was in St. Paul in early June and has scheduled a Minneapolis stop Aug. 6. Minnesota has 10 electoral votes at stake.
“These polls bounce around so you can’t get too cocky about any one snapshot,” said Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, a McCain campaign co-chairman. “But it’s good news for Senator McCain.”
Obama’s Minnesota director Jeff Blodgett also downplayed the poll.
“We know this is going to be a close race,” Blodgett said. “That is why we’re working really hard to win every vote.”
The economy kept its place as the dominant issue on voters minds. Within the pocketbook umbrella, gasoline prices remained the leading concern — polling far above health care costs, food prices, home values and retirement accounts.
Meanwhile, the same poll of 1,261 voters gives incumbent Coleman a 15-point lead over challenger Franken — 53 percent to 38 percent — in the state’s U.S. Senate contest. That’s a wider margin than the June poll showing a 10-point split.
Independents went largely for Coleman, just as they did in June. Franken continues to show cracks in his Democratic base, with one in five Democrats saying they favor Coleman.
“Franken’s problems still begin with members of his own party. He has to solve the problems at home before he can go out into the world and attract everybody,” Richards said. “There’s a lot of time left in that race.”
Coleman faces token primary opposition. Franken is one of seven Democrats running in the Sept. 9 primary.
Pointing to McCain’s improved numbers in a state where Obama’s been strongly favored, Franken campaign spokesman Andy Barr called the entire poll a “misfire.”
“We don’t believe this one is remotely correct,” Barr said.
Barr said the Franken campaign thinks the race is close and “is going to continue to be a close race.”
Coleman campaign spokesman Mark Drake said the poll results indicated voters are responding to Coleman’s record and message, but that “polls go up and down and we continue to expect this to be a very close race.”
