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Obama has an 11-point lead over McCain in the Quinnipiac University poll, down from 13-points in a June poll. The two-point drop this month was within the poll’s 3-point margin of error and statistically insignificant.
McCain’s deputy campaign manager Mike DuHaime, who was in West Allis on Thursday to meet with local Republican officials and volunteers, brushed off the poll.
“We wouldn’t be here if we thought Wisconsin was anything but winnable,” he said.
McCain made clear advances in three other states polled — Minnesota, Michigan and Colorado — so they are now too close to declare a leader. In Minnesota, McCain narrowed a 17-point Obama lead to just 2 points.
But Obama’s lead remained solid in Wisconsin, with 50 percent of likely voters saying they would vote for the Illinois senator while just 39 percent said they back McCain, a senator from Arizona.
“Sen. Barack Obama’s post-primary bubble hasn’t burst, but it is leaking a bit,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
The Obama campaign generally does not comment on polls. Obama spokesman Phil Walzak said Thursday he expects Wisconsin to be a competitive state.
Brown said one possible reason for McCain’s improvement in states other than Wisconsin is the energy issue. The poll showed increased support for additional oil drilling in the U.S., which McCain backs but Obama opposes.
In Wisconsin, 52 percent said the candidate’s energy policy is more important than his policy on the Iraq war. Thirty-four percent said Obama has the better energy policy, compared with 29 percent for McCain.
Brown said Wisconsin remains “the most liberal of swing states, giving Obama a comfortable double-digit lead.”
The poll of 1,094 people in Wisconsin was conducted between July 14 and Tuesday.
Two more polls by the Connecticut university are to be done between now and the Nov. 4 election. The poll was done in conjunction with The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post.
Wisconsin voters narrowly went for Democratic presidential candidates in both 2000 and 2004, putting it on a short list of states viewed as winnable by both sides. Still, McCain branded himself as the underdog during a stop in the state earlier this month.
Both candidates have been running television ads here. On Thursday, Obama’s campaign planned a fundraiser in Madison and it also announced a new coalition of veterans supporting the senator. McCain earlier in the week announced a similar group of veterans working on his behalf.
Republican National Committee Chairman Mike Duncan was among those, including DuHaime, who met with about 50 local and state GOP leaders in West Allis. Also present was Jen Hallowell, McCain’s campaign director for Wisconsin, Michigan and Indiana, state party chairman Reince Priebus and Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker.
Duncan said the volunteers were shown new technology the party will use to target voters and answer questions about strategy and plans for winning Wisconsin. The stop was the second of about a dozen planned in key states across the country. The first was in Michigan on Wednesday and the next was planned for Friday in Ohio.
DuHaime said he expects Wisconsin to once again be a close state, but he believes McCain’s position as the “center-right” candidate gives him a better chance.
“I feel very good about where we are right now,” he said.
