Ranking the 2024 Democratic field
A ranking of the 10 Democrats most likely to win their party's nomination for president in 2024 ... as of today.
10. Chris Murphy
10. Chris Murphy: The Connecticut senator is at the center of negotiations for a new legislation on guns in the wake of the mass school shooting in Uvalde, Texas. He is also an articulate voice on liberal policy, but by no means a strict ideologue. "He seems to understand that politics is the art of accomplishing the possible, not merely aiming for the impossible and blaming the opposition," wrote political analyst Stu Rothenberg in a column earlier this month that speculated about what's next for Murphy. Murphy isn't receiving much attention as a potential 2024 candidate, but I think he would be an intriguing one if he did decide to run.
9. Roy Cooper
9. Roy Cooper: Getting elected -- and re-elected -- as a Democrat in North Carolina is no simple thing to do. But that's exactly what Cooper has done. And there is a template for a southern governor (Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter) to run for and win the White House. As The New York Times noted in a story late last year, Cooper has a record that could appeal to Democratic primary voters: He helped repeal a bill that required people at government-run facilities to use bathrooms that corresponded to the gender on their birth certificate. He has also issued executive orders on paid parental leave and carbon neutrality. Cooper's biggest issue in a 2024 race? He isn't well known nationally. At all.
8. Cory Booker
8. Cory Booker: The New Jersey senator's 2020 presidential campaign never really got out of the starting blocks. But many of the things that made Booker appealing on paper in 2020 remain true: He is a charismatic and articulate politician with a healthy dose of star power. Plus, having run and lost once for the Democratic nomination, he is likely to be wiser about a bid the second time around. Of course, the fact that Booker's last effort was unsuccessful raises the question of "why,? which Booker would have to answer in order to gain traction in a subsequent race.
7. Amy Klobuchar
7. Amy Klobuchar: Unlike Booker, the Minnesota senator did have a moment in the 2020 race. In the days leading up to the New Hampshire primary, she looked like the momentum candidate and looked like she had a chance to pull of an upset win. She wound up finishing third, behind Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg. Less than a month later, she was out of the race and throwing her support to Biden. The way she ran -- and the way she ended her campaign -- earned Klobuchar kudos, which could be useful if she runs again in 2024.
6. Elizabeth Warren
6. Elizabeth Warren: My eyebrows were raised when Warren took to the pages of The New York Times in April with an op-ed entitled: "Democrats Can Avoid Disaster in November." Her argument was that Democrats needed to pass as much of their agenda as possible before November and that voters would reward them for doing so. Which, well, questionable. The op-ed included these lines: "Despite pandemic relief, infrastructure investments and the historic Supreme Court confirmation of Ketanji Brown Jackson, we promised more -- and voters remember those promises." Whoa! That sort of language puts Warren in a position to say "I told you so" if Democrats, as expected, get clobbered at the polls in 2022. And could serve as a launching pad for a second bid for the White House.
5. Gavin Newsom
5. Gavin Newsom: A funny thing happened when Republicans in California tried to recall Newsom as governor: it made him much, much stronger. Newsom not only easily defeated the 2021 recall effort, but is now a huge favorite to win a second term this November. That recall effort also gave Newsom massive amounts of national exposure to the donor and activist class, which would come in handy if he decided to run in 2024. Newsom, at least at the moment, is playing coy. "It's not even on my radar," he told the San Francisco Chronicle in May of a potential presidential bid. Which, fine. But Newsom has always had BIG ambitions.
4. Pete Buttigieg
4. Pete Buttigieg: When Buttigieg, the breakout star of the 2020 Democratic presidential race, took the job as secretary of Transportation in the Biden administration, many observers wondered why. After all, it isn't the sort of lofty perch that positions like Attorney General or Secretary of State are. But Buttigieg has proven his doubters wrong, emerging as the face of the decidedly popular infrastructure bill. It turns out that doling out federal dollars for local projects is a very good way to build goodwill. Buttigieg is among the most natural politicians in the Democratic Party and, at age 40, can afford to wait if the 2024 or even 2028 field doesn't look promising for him.
3. Bernie Sanders
3. Bernie Sanders: Most people assumed that the 2020 presidential race would be the Vermont senator's last. After all, he's now 80 years old, and with two unsuccessful national bids behind him, it seemed that Sanders was likely to ride into the political sunset. Nope! "In the event of an open 2024 Democratic presidential primary, Sen. Sanders has not ruled out another run for president, so we advise that you answer any questions about 2024 with that in mind," wrote Sanders adviser Faiz Shakir in a memo to allies in April. While Sanders has ruled out challenging Biden in a 2024 Democratic primary, it's easy to see him consider another run if Biden bows out. And Sanders remains the best-known -- and most well-liked -- candidate among liberals in the country.
2. Kamala Harris
2. Kamala Harris: The vice president appears to have steadied the ship somewhat after a decidedly rocky first year-plus in office. While Harris' political stock has taken a major hit, she would still start an open 2024 Democratic race as the frontrunner, thanks in large part to her support from Black voters. While she would start as the favorite, it's still hard to see Harris clearing the field after her struggles, so far, as Biden's second-in-command.
1. Joe Biden
1. Joe Biden: There's zero question that Biden is in bad political shape at the moment -- approval ratings in the high 30s, gas at $5 a gallon, inflation the highest it has been in 40 years. There's also zero question that if Biden decides he wants to run for a second term, he will almost certainly be the party's nominee -- and probably won't have to fight all that hard for it. It's an open question as to whether that is the best thing for Democrats nationally.
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